May 2025 Market Update

How is the market in Arrowhead Ranch? Let’s look at some data from May 2025.

• 29 homes sold in Arrowhead in May. This is an 31.82% increase from May 2024, which was one of the slowest months in recent years.

• Price per square foot was $270.65 a 0.11% increase from 2024.

• The average sold price was $571,466 a decrease of 5.73%.

At first glance, the drop in average sold price looks concerning. That is a big drop in one year, right? I was concerned at first too, so I took a harder look at the data.

The price per square foot didn’t really change, and this tells a bit more of the story. The average size of homes sold in May 2025 was 2,119 square feet, versus 2,290 square feet in May 2024. Larger homes sold in 2024, which helps to explain why the average price was much higher. In my opinion, prices have remained flat, just like we see in the average price per square foot numbers.

The one caveat with looking at one month of data for Arrowhead Ranch is that it is a relatively small market and the data can fluctuate pretty easily.

How does Arrowhead compare to Phoenix Metro?

Let’s have a look at what happened in the Phoenix market in May

• 4,358 homes sold in Metro Phoenix in May. This is an 3.46% decrease from May 2024.

• Price per square foot was $265.48 a 1.39% decrease from 2024.

• The average sold price was $515,841 a decrease of 1.45%.

Lots of stories in the news the past month about increases in housing inventory, and discussion about the current status being a ‘buyer’s market.’

One line that has been prevalent in several of these stories is this ‘there are now more home sellers than there are buyers.’ Yeah, duh. This is always the case, otherwise every house would sell the day it is listed for sale. And prices would be significantly higher.

Yes, the number of homes for sale in the Phoenix Metro area, in all price ranges, has increased quite a bit in the past year. In June of 2024, there were 11,089 single family homes for sale, and now there are 16,133 single family homes on the market. This is a 45% increase.

Looking at the data in the chart (which does not include luxury homes priced over $1 million), if you compare the number of homes sold to the number of homes currently for sale, there are three ‘months of inventory’, which is the time it would take to sell all of the homes on the market, at the current rate if no more homes became available.

Typically, 4-6 months of inventory is considered a normal, or balanced market. In my opinion, we are a long ways from a ‘buyer’s market’ which would require there to be two times as many homes for sale as there are now.

What does this mean if you’re considering buying a home today? Yes, there are more homes for sale, but for now all it means is you will have more options to choose from and potentially less competition for a home you like. Plus you may have the opportunity to negotiate a better price or seller concessions. It likely does not mean you will get huge discounts off of the list price.

Have questions about real estate here in Arrowhead Ranch? You can reach out to J.D. Manning, The Arrowhead Agent at My Home Group, at (480) 797-8975.